Cargo 2013: A turning point of recovery

(VLR) “Profits from the aviation industry shows the development. Together with the hope that the global economy will bounce back, demands in airfreight markets is surging. This is the turning point for the recovery of the industry and this is also a promise to take over “old markets” of airlines.” Commented Tony Tyler-General Director of International Air Transport Association (IATA)

“Profits from the aviation industry shows the development. Together with the hope that the global economy will bounce back, demands in airfreight markets is surging. This is the turning point for the recovery of the industry and this is also a promise to take over “old markets” of airlines.” Commented Tony Tyler-General Director of International Air Transport Association (IATA)

DEALING WITH CRISIS

In response to global challenges as faced by most businesses throughout the past few years, freight forwarders have adjusted their business models in response to adverse economic demands. Few rarely focus on one single transport mode and most offer ancillary services formerly reserved for third party logistics providers. For example, forwarders once specializing only in next day air cargo may now offer various air service levels, ocean shipping or using 3PL to fit tight customer budgets.

There was a big event of air cargo section – a result of the economy crisis: the merging of American Airlines and US Airway. With the merging, the U.S will possess the biggest airline in the world with 6,700 flights/day and annual profits expected to reach USD 40 billion. However, this may lead to the price increase and customers are having fewer choices. However, “the merging will ensure a brighter future for the aviation, which is able to make up the concern above”, said Mr. Brandon Fried-Executive Director of Airforwarders Association.

Despite decrease in demands and profit of the aviation sector for the last two years, IATA gave a hopeful forecast: demand for air cargo will increase around 2.7% with stable profit. The organization hoped to reach pre-tax profit rate of 1.6% and pre-tax profit of USD 10.6 billion. This can be a promising sign to the finance situation of the aviation industry in 2013.

CHANGING

The air cargo has shown sign of positive changing, like the world economy. Together with the optimism of the economy, fuel price goes up. In USD 12 billion of turnover, fuel cost accounts for USD 9-10 billions. This is a risk when fuel cost is too high. However, even when the fuel price reaches USD 130/ barrel/ year, it takes only 33% expense of airlines, equal to that of 2012. This shows airlines’ operations have had significant efficiency.

According to the latest forecast from IATA, air cargo volume growth in 2013 will be at 2.7%, instead of the predicted number of 1.4%. Airlines in the areas of North America, Middle East and Africa are thriving. However, there is a slowdown in the area of Latin America.

Accounted for 40% global market share, airlines in the area of Asia-Pacific are expected to contribute a greater part in making a profit of USD 4.2 billion in 2013. If demand rises as predicted, the area will stand to benefit most.

The cash flow of airlines show signs of being improved in Asia; it show signs of normal in the area of America; it shows sign of slowing down in Europe.

In Europe, experts said the airlines are “walking on the thin ice”. Association of European Airlines said they will probably lose USD1.5 billion this year, while the American ones predicted to have a profit of USD3.4 billion.

According to Mr.Tyler, it is due to the economic slowdown in Europe, strict regulations of EU, and air control fee, which is almost double that in the U.S. This is really a threat to the recovery of the sector.

Although there have been some dismal signs, IATA believe the airlines will make of profit of USD 10.6 billion over the turn over USD 671 billion.

Compared to the profit of USD 11.5 billion over the turnover of USD 100 billion by Nestle- a trading company, it shows the regular lack of balance between profit and turnover in the aviation sector. Therefore, there should be improvements and cost cutting for the balance.

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