Brexit and Vietnam economy

(VLR) (Vietnam Logistics Review) Economic experts said the fact that Britain left EU may lead to reconsideration of provisions in the free trade agreement between Vietnam and EU, which is related to Britain. This will make the realization of the agreement slower than expected. And how does Brexit affect Vietnam?

(Vietnam Logistics Review) Economic experts said the fact that Britain left EU may lead to reconsideration of provisions in the free trade agreement between Vietnam and EU, which is related to Britain. This will make the realization of the agreement slower than expected. And how does Brexit affect Vietnam?

Why did the British choose Brexit?

Brexit is an abbreviation of “British exit”- British voters to exit EU, similarly to “Grexit” for “Greek exit”- the possibility that Greek could leave EU. In the UK, Brexit voters chose to leave the EU and the rest- the Remain voters. Why did most of British voters choose Brexit?

Surveys showed that dissatisfaction with immigration increase is the main reason for British voters choose to leave the E.U. By the time of 1993- the establishment of the EU, immigration was not a main concern. At the time, immigrants to the U.K was under 100,000 people annually. However, things have changed remarkably.

People’s anger has been fueled with the government’s unsuccessful policies in immigration limitation that has led to pressures on the labor markets and public services. After EU’s expansion to the east in 2004 and 2007. Many people from Eastern Europe, where there was a weaker economy, have immigrated to richer countries, as the U.K, for employment. For example, Polish people have been the second largest immigrants to the U.K, after Indians.

In addition, the financial crisis of 2008 led to the slowdown in countries that used to be developed ones as Spain, Italy and Portugal. And people from the country had to come to other ones. The UK’s labor market has been considered as the opened one and English is a popular language- things that attracts immigrants.

Before the election of 2010, Prime Minister David Cameron committed to reduce the immigrant number to dozen thousand. However, he failed to keep the promise, which badly affected his leadership ability. And British politicians have been considered unfit in reducing immigration flow from the EU. The election campaign of the Leave voters first focused on economy and sovereignty, but then they found immigrant control would be the strongest message. And they connected it to the shortage of schools and to the salary cut…

In his term, PM Cameron has tried to appease skeptical members of Parliament by withdrawing from Group of European People’s Party (EPP) - a large influential political group in European Parliament. However, the rightwing members of Tory still dissatisfied with his efforts and pressured him to hold a referendum.

At the beginning of October 2011, PM Cameron realized he was facing a lingering war with the Leave, after 81 Tory’s members of Parliament calling for a referendum on the member role of the UK, according to Guardian. At the beginning of 2013, Cameron surrendered the pressure from Parliament members. He promised to negotiate with the EU and to hold a referendum at the end of 2017. And he had no choice but hold a referendum on last June 23rd.

Brexit has little influence to Vietnam

The fact that the UK ended their “love story” to the UK was shocking. It is obvious to image USD galloping inflation, fluctuating stock market. G7 leaders are afraid it will even cause a shock to global economy. How to Vietnam?

In the morning of June 24, in the press conference in Hanoi, in the report overviewing of markets and price for June and the first six months of 2016, Ms. Do Thi Ngoc, Deputy Director of Department of Statistic (General Statistics Office, the Ministry of Plan- Investment) said the fact that the UK either leaves the EU or stays has influence to the world’s economy. In Asia, economies of China’s, Japan’s, Singapore’s …will be affected. However, it almost has little influence on that of Vietnam’s.

Vietnam has signed a number of free trade agreements as TPP, EVFTA, however, she said, they have not yet come into effect. However the low level of Vietnam’s integration will save it from Brexit’s influences.

According to Capital Economics, London, Brexit can cause a maximum 0.2% decrease of Asia’s GDP. And it will cause a 25% of the UK’s global import-export turnover in the next two years. Daniel Martin, an Asian economist working for Capital Economics, said some Asia’s economies as Cambodia’s, Vietnam’s and especially Hong Kong’s will have significant influences for they are having busier trading activities to the UK.

According to report from the Ministry of Plan- Investment, the UK ranked second among countries and region investing in Vietnam with USD 1.25bn (the first 8 months). Vietnam and the UK has had diplomatic relationship since 1973 and Vietnam has export of USD 5bn annually to the country.

Export to the UK has had an increase of 20% annually with continuous surplus to Vietnam: over USD 3bn in 2015. There are hundreds of the UK’s trading representative offices and business branches in Vietnam. Economic experts said provisions related to the UK in free trade agreements between Vietnam and EU would be reconsidered, which could lengthen the process of trade agreement realization.

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