Thứ bảy, 31/07/2021Hotline: 0816 886 786Quảng cáo

2016 – Logistics in transition

(VLR) (Vietnam Logistics Review) Its transition time for the supply chain and logistics sector. New technologies are on the horizon, but arent here yet. Old ways of doing things are being slowly phased out as new ways phase in. Decades-old trade barriers are breaking down, opening new markets to the world. The way consumers shop is in flux, and their shipping expectations are becoming more expensive for carriers.

(Vietnam Logistics Review) Its transition time for the supply chain and logistics sector. New technologies are on the horizon, but arent here yet. Old ways of doing things are being slowly phased out as new ways phase in. Decades-old trade barriers are breaking down, opening new markets to the world. The way consumers shop is in flux, and their shipping expectations are becoming more expensive for carriers.

At the end of June 2016, CSCMP and Penske Logistics released the 27th annual State of Logistics report, titled Logistics in Transition: New Drivers at the Wheel, which addresses all of the above issues. This years report has a new author as well: consulting firm A.T. Kearney.

The economy looks pretty good

The global economy grew in 2015 by about 2.8 percent, and the U.S. economy was close behind at 2.4 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF expects similar growth over the next two years.

In particular, the dollar looks better than it has in some time, rising 23 percent between July 2014 and December 2015, according to the Federal Reserve. A 3.2-percent rise in consumer spending and a stronger housing market are other notable indicators of a healthy American economy.

Still, things are far from perfect, and shippers need to watch some issues closely moving forward. Total business logistics costs rose 2.6 percent over 2014, to $1.48 trillion, representing a large slowdown from prior years. The strength of consumer spending would normally create higher demand for logistics services, but that hasnt been the case either.

Average inventory rose by only 0.25 percent, which some fear is an indicator of another economic crash. More likely, and supported by the positive numbers of the Cass Freight Index in early 2016, among other sources, this stat is just an indicator of a correction after inventory steadily rose by more than 5 percent between 2009 and 2014, the report says.

Every mode has its thorn

Trucking racked up $583 billion in revenues in 2015, according to the report. On the surface, that dollar amount makes it seem like things are going pretty stellar for trucking, but that isnt necessarily the case.

Rates finally fell in 2015 due to overcapacity issues, after several years of upward trends. They started low in January 2015 and only got progressively lower as the year went on. This stopped many carriers from buying new equipment and expanding fleet sizes.

Rail has its own positives and negatives. Natural gas overtook coal-powered energy as the largest producer of electricity in the United States, contributing to a 14-percent decline in coal traffic by rail. An oversaturated oil market has seen less oil moving by rail as well, possibly due to increased pipeline investment in the United States.

Meanwhile, airfreight carriers still cant get their overcapacity problem under control. Both passenger and cargo airlines added capacity in 2015 despite a weak recovery in demand for air cargo services. The good news for air carriers is that many U.S. companies rely on air transport for high-value goods as a critical part of their supply chain, especially for international imports and exports. So even with depressed demand, certain shipments will always require the expediency only air travel can provide.

Maritime shipping also suffers from an overcapacity problem. Ocean carriers keep buying larger ships to increase their TEU capacity in the face of declining demand trends, and that results in excellent rates for U.S. bulk and container shippers.

Driving down the road

Technological advances, macroeconomic uncertainty, consumer buying trends, and new regulations leave the future of logistics difficult to predict. With so much in flux, CSCMP and Penske Logistics predict four scenarios to begin a dialogue about what can happen moving forward.

Scenario 1. A technology-friendly environment, complete with regulators who understand the technologies limits and possibilities. Driverless vehicles stop the driver shortage. The Internet of Things connects every step of the supply chain to provide maximum efficiency.

Scenario 2. Operational constraints, the driver shortage, and fuel prices spiral out of control while regulations restrict new technologies that could make things simpler. Only easily implemented technologies succeed, and only in the hands of those who can afford their high cost.

Scenario 3. Things stay basically the same. Transportation and warehousing technologies are slowly implemented over a long period of time. Facility locations remain central or local to keep costs down.

Scenario 4. Stringent regulations drive up supply costs, translating to higher consumer costs in a market where competitors are all essentially the same.

The idea behind these four scenarios is not that anything is certain, but to begin a conversation about what each instance would mean for various industries and companies. Supply chain professionals must look at each scenario and plan for what their company would do should that environment, or some form of it, arise in the next decade. Being prepared for all situations can help ensure stability and growth, even in the most uncertain of times.

Ý kiến bạn đọc

Chưa có ý kiến nào. Hãy là người để lại ý kiến đầu tiên.

Ý kiến của bạn

0

Tối thiểu 10 chữTiếng Việt có dấuKhông chứa liên kếtGửi bình luận

Vui lòng nhập mã bảo mật để gửi bình luận lên hệ thống
Gửi bình luận

Hơn 19 triệu USD đầu tư nâng cấp quốc lộ 9 từ cảng Cửa Việt đi quốc lộ 1

9 Giờ trước

Tuyến Quốc lộ 9 từ cảng Cửa Việt đến tuyến Quốc lộ 1 thuộc tỉnh Quảng Trị dài 13,8 km sẽ được nâng cấp đạt tiêu chuẩn đường cấp II đồng bằng, quy mô 4 làn xe với tổng mức đầu tư hơn 19 triệu USD (tương đương 440,38 tỷ đồng).

Bộ Công Thương đề nghị ưu tiên vaccine lao động vận tải và logistics

11 Giờ trước

Bộ Công Thương vừa có công văn hỏa tốc gửi các địa phương, ban ngành liên quan đề nghị ưu tiên tiêm vaccine cho lái xe, người lao động ngành vận tải và logistics nhằm không để đứt gãy chuỗi sản xuất.

Việt Nam và EU đánh dấu một năm Hiệp định thương mại tự do EVFTA

11 Giờ trước

Nhân dịp kỷ niệm một năm thực hiện Hiệp định Thương mại Tự do EU-Việt Nam (EVFTA), ngày 30/7/2021, Hiệp hội Doanh nghiệp châu Âu tại Việt Nam (EuroCham) đã tổ chức hội thảo trực tuyến nhìn lại tiến trình 12 tháng bản hiệp định này đi vào thực tế.

Thời tiết

Hiện tại

°

Nguồn: Weathers Underground

Tỷ giá ngoại tệ

Tỷ giá ngoại tệ cập nhật vào 31/07/2021 18:45
Mã NTTiền mặtChuyển khoảnBán
AUD16,533.6216,700.6317,224.28
EUR26,579.9626,848.4527,963.10
GBP31,210.5431,525.8032,514.30
JPY204.45206.51215.17
SGD16,532.4216,699.4117,223.03
THB617.19685.77711.53
USD22,820.0022,850.0023,050.00
Nguồn: Vietcombank

Giá xăng dầu

Giá xăng, dầu cập nhật ngày 31/07/2021 11:16
Loại xăng dầuĐơn vịGiá vùng 1Giá vùng 2
Dầu hỏaVND/L1539015690
DO 0,001S-VVND/L1672017050
DO 0,05SVND/L1637016690
Xăng E5 RON 92-IIVND/L2049020890
Xăng RON 95-II,IIIVND/L2168022110
Xăng RON 95-IVVND/L2178022210
Nguồn: Petrolimex