How Trump's Re-election Will Affect Supply Chains and Trade Markets

Increased Tariffs and Impact on International Trade

In 2018, during his first term, Donald Trump launched an aggressive campaign to shift the trade balance with China by imposing a 25% tariff on $50 billion worth of imported goods. This policy was part of the “America First” strategy, aimed at protecting American intellectual property and technology while enhancing market access for domestic businesses in China. This move ignited a prolonged trade war between the two largest economies, impacting global supply chains and forcing businesses to adapt their operational strategies to cope with constant changes.

With Trump's re-election, he plans to continue and expand these tariff policies with stricter measures. Trump has announced his intention to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports into the U.S., regardless of their country of origin. Specifically, goods from China could face tariffs of up to 60% or even higher. Such aggressive tariff increases would add pressure to supply chains, compelling many companies to seek alternative solutions to minimize costs and avoid excessive reliance on a single country.

“If the Trump administration intensifies new tariff impositions, it will create significant pressure on U.S. manufacturing and technology sectors, pushing them to consider shifting parts of their supply chain away from China to avoid high costs,” said Michael Zimmerman, Trade Economist at Eurasia Group, in a statement to Bloomberg.

Corporate Tax Rates and Growth-Driving Policies

Trump’s re-election also signals that the corporate tax rate will remain at 21%, rather than increasing after 2025 as previously anticipated. The 2017 Tax Act lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, a move that has been recognized for significantly boosting the competitiveness of U.S. companies in the global market.

Matthew Shay, President and CEO of the National Retail Federation, emphasized that this growth-driven tax policy aligns with the goal of facilitating business expansion. He noted that maintaining the 21% rate keeps the U.S. competitive compared to the average among OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries, though it is still slightly higher than in some other nations. This policy can be beneficial for domestic companies, especially in capital-intensive sectors with plans for large-scale expansion.

“A new wave of tariff policies could increase the uncertainty in U.S.-China trade relations, while also presenting opportunities for Southeast Asian countries to become alternative supply chain destinations,” said Sarah Barnes, Executive Director of the Center for International Trade Policy Analysis, in an interview with Financial Times.

The Future Path for Supply Chains

Trump’s re-election and the reimplementation of protectionist economic policies could pose both challenges and opportunities for global supply chains. While high tariffs may raise import costs and disrupt trade flows, they also provide incentives for companies to diversify supply sources and invest in domestic production. The low corporate tax rate can be an investment catalyst, offering opportunities for U.S. businesses to strengthen their position in international markets.

However, to avoid significant shocks from unpredictable trade policies, companies need to develop long-term and flexible strategies. Market analysis and anticipating changes, along with collaboration with suppliers and strategic partners, will help businesses adapt and optimize operations in a volatile market environment.

In conclusion, Trump’s return to the White House may usher in a new era of challenges as well as opportunities for businesses that can grasp trends and adapt swiftly. It is crucial to proactively build a resilient supply chain capable of responding to unforeseen changes in trade and tax policies.

By Phong Le