The Cost of the “Hidden Tax”: Global Shipping Faces a New Wave of Geopolitical Tensions

Washington’s Rejection and a Wake-Up Call on the Net-Zero Framework

The decision by the U.S. under Donald Trump to reject the IMO’s Net-Zero Emissions Framework immediately sparked concerns across the global shipping industry, especially as the justification given was that the plan would create “a hidden tax on American consumers.” The IMO’s framework aims to gradually reduce and ultimately eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from shipping - a sector responsible for nearly 3% of global emissions. However, the U.S. argued that the forced shift to new, expensive, and globally uncommon fuels such as ammonia, hydrogen, or methanol would impose heavy costs on American consumers while giving an unfair advantage to China, which controls much of the green fuel supply chain and next-generation shipbuilding.

Green Fuels as a Tool for Geopolitical Competition

Beneath the surface of environmental policy, the net-zero framework is becoming a new tool for geopolitical competition. The U.S. supports LNG and biofuels—options in which it holds technological and production advantages. Meanwhile, Europe leans toward carbon-free solutions such as ammonia and hydrogen, which require massive investment and rely heavily on renewable energy technologies.

China, with its superior capacity in producing fuel cells, wind power, and solar energy, is quietly cementing its position as the central supplier of global alternative fuel solutions. Any international framework mandating the use of certain types of fuels would reshape the global energy power structure and redistribute commercial opportunities.

Policy Risks Spill Over into Global Logistics Chains

As maritime transport becomes a target of policy conflicts, a clear consequence is the rising legal and policy-related risks across the entire logistics chain. Shipping companies now have to worry not just about fuel prices or operational efficiency but also about continuously adapting to varying environmental regulations across regions.

The risk of a “standards war” is real, as the U.S., EU, China, and other trade blocs may enforce their own emissions criteria, green ship standards, and even carbon levies. A scenario in which a vessel compliant with U.S. standards is denied entry to a European port is entirely plausible, ushering in an unprecedented fragmentation of the logistics industry—one that was built on global standardization.

Retaliation Moves and Their Impact on Shipping

More concerning is that the U.S. has not only rejected the emissions framework but also warned of potential retaliatory actions against countries that support it. This opens the door to a very real “green tax war,” where surcharges, technical barriers, and market restrictions may become tools of reciprocal retaliation.

A worst-case scenario would see shipping companies, ports, and supply chains dragged into conflicting policy storms, forced to choose compliance “sides” and trade-off access to certain markets. Some carriers have even begun preparing for dual-operation models: one fleet that complies with U.S. standards, and another that meets European requirements—at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.

The biggest threat is not freight rates or technical standards, but unpredictability—policy and geopolitical risk have now become central forces governing maritime shipping, once considered the most neutral and stable sector in global trade.

From a Technical Sector to a Geopolitical Battleground

The rise of “green taxes” and environmental policy frameworks is transforming maritime shipping from a technical sector into a geopolitical battlefield. The question is no longer “Which technology to choose?” but “Where to stand?” in the global map of interests.

For Vietnam, this implies a strategic dilemma: how to avoid becoming a passive victim of externally imposed policies while maintaining competitiveness and operational sovereignty within global supply chains.

It is high time for Vietnam to craft a comprehensive maritime and logistics strategy with geopolitical vision and international policy forecasting capabilities. Those countries that invest in transparency, dual-standard readiness, and proactive green transition ecosystems will not only escape the “hidden tax” trap but also lead the next generation of maritime trade.

By Van Tam