Vietnams golden population oppoturnity

Vietnam’s population reached the number of 90 million, ranked 14^th and ranked third in the list of densly-populated countries in the world and of ASEAN. The annual increase is around a million, and it is estimated to reach 110 million in 2050. Having crowded population, small area, limited exploitation of the sea area and being the country just coming out of the list of global low-income ones, Vietnam has still had some achievements. And this leads us to the idea of how to make good use of “golden population opportunity” (2010-2040) to make the country a strong marine industrial country in the region and in the world as well in 2020. A thought that author wishes to share with readers.

GRASPING THE OPPORTUNITY

We are stepping in the 21^st century facing both convenience and challenges. Predictions show the world’s population will reach 9.3 billion in 2050. The lack of accommodation will certainly be more serious, together with the shortage of fresh water and food due to the shortage of agricultural land when there is the sea level rise – the result of global warming- and the lengthening economic downturn, has made a rather gloomy vision of the world. More attempts should be required from each of the country in the world to make their nation themselves better and to make it the better world for the next generations.

Golden population opportunity

United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)’s definition: A country having “golden population opportunity” when dependent population rate is lower than 50, that is, every two people or more working, there is only one dependent person.

Vietnam’s General Statistics Office shows a clearer definition: the rate of children (0-14) is lower than 30% and the rate of senior citizens (over 65) is lower than 15%. According to the UNFPA, in 2010, over 60% of Vietnamese people was in labor age (0-14); in 2011-2020, Vietnam’s labor force has had an annual increase of 1%, equally to 47.82 million people (2011), 50.4 million (2015) and 53.15 million (2020).

Therefore, Vietnam’s “golden population opportunity” happens from 2010 to 2040, the next 30 years. We should have strategies to develop the country using modern science and technology as motivations for our abundant skilled workforce and gradually shift to intellectual economy and stable development.

Countries having made good use of “golden population opportunity”

“Golden population opportunity” itself brings no benefits to countries without appropriate policies and strategies for it is a natural principle in the progress of development of every people.

North East Asean countries have a better use of it than those in South East Asia region thanks to remarkable science-technology and the number of population taking part in high-economic activities – a fast but stable increase. In the period of 1960-1990, the rate of average labor capital accumulation in Japan reached 7.6%/ year; Korea and Taiwan, over 8.5%/ year thanks to making good use of “golden population opportunity”.

Singapore has had 40 years of “golden population opportunity” (1980-2020). They have made good use of the opportunity to bring Singapore in the list of high-income countries in the world, especially in the field of economy, finance and modern science-technology, maritime, container transport, logistics… Thailand has had 35 years of “golden population opportunity” (1990-2025). Malaysia, 30 years of “golden population opportunity”. The two countries has made good use of it to put themselves in high stature in ASEAN countries.

In general, in the past several decades, many countries have combined their strong technical- scientific developments and golden population opportunity to bring their countries to remarkable development and to make themselves Asian “tiger” or “dragon” as Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Japan.

VIETNAM’S “GOLDEN POPULATION OPPORTUNITY”

Revolutionizing the field of education and training

Education and training are two inseparable sides of a unified matter for they are supplementary and a decisive element for the success of a strategy or for the country’s prosperity.

In Vietnam, there are over a million people going to universities or colleges, however, there has been a shortage in human resource. It is the result of the irrational mechanism of the educational system from elementary level to college level, together with the unqualified training, creating an imbalance between the population and the workforce.

Vietnam was ranked 11/12 of Asian countries in resource quality. On a 10-point scale, we have the following result: Korea 6.91; India 5.6; Malaysia 5.59; Thailand 4.94 and Vietnam 3.79.

The unbalance between the number of technicians, engineers and workers has resulted in the shortage of workforce – badly affecting the country’s economic development.

In intermediate and elementary level, vocational and skill training should be focused to create a strong qualified workforce. On the contrary, in graduated and post graduated level, the “output” should be paid more attention to have qualified engineers to deploy scientific knowledge – a step of preparation for the shifting to intellectual economy and stable development.

According to statistics, there are 53 million people in their labor age (63% of population), only 27% of them was officially trained with international standard, the rest of 73% has not been going through any training at all. Labor capacity of Vietnam was ranked 77/125 countries and regions in the world. From the result, vocational training and labor skill is an important task in national human resource policies.

At the beginning of 2011, Vietnam made a planning for human resource development (2011-2020). In the next 10 years, there will be 30.5 million laborer to be trained with the total investment up to VND 2,135,000 billion (12% of the total social investment) and there will be another 158 universities and colleges to be built to meet the requirement of human resource.

Developing in-shortage scientific-technical sectors and upgrading quality of the scientific- technical team

It is urgent to develop both in depth and in width with the target of improving social security:

• Focusing on scientific research with practical projects as required from business and society. Connecting researches and applications (projects accepted should be manufacturing to serve production and life.)
• Building transparent working environment to attract researchers (treatment policies, appropriate salary for international-scale projects).
• Investing and supporting manufacturers to implement R&D programs to make hi-tech product. Building national brand to compete in global scale, making Vietnam’s products take control of the local markets and then, the world market.

• Popularizing basic science to upgrade people’s knowledge, especially focusing on remote areas, coastal areas, and islands… and on economy fields that has been the country’s advantages as maritime economy, agricultural economy, mining economy…

• Focusing on current issues as global climate change that affects Vietnam, alternative energy, environment treatment, nuclear power, IT, biology, ocean engineering… - competitive one for a coastal country like Vietnam.

Vietnam has a strong team of technicians compared to those in ASEAN countries that appropriately response to all requirements of reforming and constructing. However, we have not made a giant leap like those of North East Asia for a number of objective and subjective reasons. The most visible subjective reason is the low quality that makes performance of the team limited. This should be improved in the process of global integration.

“Golden population opportunity” happens in the progress of industrialization and modernization and also at the time Vietnam just stepped out the list of global low-income countries, and aims at to be a country with the advanced industry in 2020. We need both “inner” and “outer” forces. “Inner force”: strong qualified workforce with expertise in modern science and technology; “outer force”: international cooperation and support to make a better transport infrastructure and to deal with global climate change to have an effective economy, and fair, civilized society, and a clean environment. The expectation of “golden opportunity” with be a stable fulcrum to boost up the potential strength of Vietnam people.