The first quarter of 2023 achieved positive results
In the first quarter of 2023, the socio-economic situation of Vietnam took place when the world economy continued to have many complicated and unstable fluctuations. Although global inflation has cooled down, it is still at a high level; slow recovery and decline in consumption demand of major trading partners, the instability of some banks in the US and Europe affects people’s confidence in the banking system while central banks continue to raise interest rates and use tight money policies. Moreover, world energy prices soar; The war between Russia and Ukraine is prolonged... International organizations have stated that the world economic growth in 2023 will be 0.5 to 1.2 percentage lower than in 2022.
Domestically, with the determination to create a breakthrough motivation for economic development according to the set targets, the Prime Minister directed ministries, branches and localities to focus on implementing Resolution No. 01/NQ -CP The Program on socio-economic recovery and development; Directive 03/CT-TTg of the Prime Minister on key tasks and solutions after the Lunar New Year. As a result, macroeconomic stability was maintained, major balances were ensured, and inflation was controlled at an appropriate level. Socio-economic results in the first quarter of 2023 of Vietnam achieved positive results.
According to the report of the General Statistics Office, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2023 was estimated to increase by 3.32% over the same period of 2022, only higher than the growth rate of 3.21% in the first quarter of 2020 in the period 2011- 2023. In which, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.52%, contributing 8.85% to the overall growth; the industry and construction sector decreased by 0.4%, reducing by 4.76%; the service sector increased by 6.79%, contributing 95.91%.
Regarding the economic structure in the first quarter of 2023, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounted for 11.66%; industry and construction accounted for 35.47%; service sector accounted for 43.65%; product tax minus product subsidies accounted for 9.22% (corresponding structure of the same period in 2022 was 11.57%; 37.08%; 42.06%; 9.29%).
Ensuring the achievement of growth objectives
Based on the prediction, the global economic, political and security situation will continue to be more complicated and unpredictable. The risk of recession, world financial, currency and real estate markets are still increasing. Vietnam will continue to face great difficulties and challenges, especially due to the great impact and influence of adverse external factors and the internal limitations, plus inadequacies of the economy lasting from many years.
Faced with that situation, in the spirit of the Government’s direction at the Government’s regular meeting in March 2023, the ministries, branches and localities continued to thoroughly grasp and direct the effective, substantive and comprehensive implementation of the project, consistent tasks and solutions in the fields according to the Resolutions and Directives of the Prime Minister; maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, promoting growth, ensuring major balances of the economy; drastically remove difficulties and obstacles for production and business; proactive, timely, close to reality and coordinate closely, synchronously and smoothly in direction and administration; take advantage of time and opportunities to help the recovery and development of industries and other fields.
At the same time, continue to review and update the growth scenario for the next quarters and 2023 as a whole, and propose solutions to ensure the implementation of the full-year growth target of about 6.5% as the target assigned by the National Assembly; Implement reasonable, focus on fiscal policy, ensuring efficiency, supporting businesses and people to reduce cost pressure, promote production, attract investment, and reduce output prices to control inflation.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade will cooperate with branches and localities to ensure the supply of petrol and oil for the domestic market in all situations and managing petrol and oil prices in accordance with regulations... Completing the plan to adjust the selling price average electricity retail in accordance with the new price bracket and according to the provisions of law; continue to support localities to promote e-commerce development.
According to the World Bank, the economic recovery of Southeast Asian countries after the recession caused by the pandemic is quite different. GDP growth of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand is predicted to reach 4.8%, 4.0% and 3.6% in 2023, decrease 0.5,0.5 and 0.7 percentage respectively compared to the prediction in June 2022. The WB slightly revised decrease its economic growth forecasts for the Philippines and Vietnam at 5.4% and 6.3%, both decrease about 0.2 percentage, benefiting from increased personal use consumption and growth in commodity exports.
Propagating and promoting consumption policies, stimulating domestic consumption demand, effectively exploiting the domestic market. Strengthen market management, fight against smuggling, commercial fraud and counterfeit goods; Continue to expand and diversify export markets towards new and potential markets such as India, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, Eastern Europe, etc. To promote effective exploitation of the Agreements. Free trade agreements (FTAs) and promote negotiation and signing of new FTAs.
Finally, Vietnam need to facilitating and enhancing digital transformation in granting preferential C/O certificates of origin, supporting businesses to take advantage of commitments in FTAs. Focus on innovating and strengthening trade promotion activities. Promote the development of logistics services, reduce costs, improve the competitiveness of Vietnam’s exports, strive to achieve the set goals and tasks of socio-economic development.