Cargojet’s Growth Amid Trade Wars – The “Dark Horse” of the Air Cargo Industry

Growth “against the tide” amid a trade storm
The US–China trade war, along with a series of new tariff measures, has significantly reduced international air cargo volumes. According to IATA, global cargo throughput in Q2 2025 fell by 4.2% year-on-year, with the trans-Pacific route being hit the hardest.

Yet Cargojet posted a 7% increase in core revenue, reaching a new record. The reason lies in the company’s limited reliance on international routes, focusing instead on the Canadian domestic market — where e-commerce demand continues to grow at double-digit rates despite the downturn in other regions.

Three strategic levers keeping growth on track

Domestic e-commerce: Canada has a population of over 40 million but a vast territory, making fast delivery an essential need. Cargojet works closely with major online retailers such as Amazon Canada and Walmart Canada to ensure “overnight” delivery to most provinces.

Stable B2B segment:Beyond serving individual customers, Cargojet transports industrial goods, auto parts, medical equipment, and more for large corporations. This is a stable revenue stream, less affected by retail price fluctuations.

Flexible charter services: Cargojet makes full use of its Boeing 767/757 fleet for international charter orders, from urgent relief shipments to high-value goods. This segment helps the company increase its profit margins, particularly during periods of international freight rate volatility.

Vietnam’s market lessons from Cargojet
Cargojet’s success offers a direct lesson for Vietnamese logistics enterprises: don’t put all your “eggs” in the international basket. Currently, most Vietnamese air cargo companies rely heavily on exports to the US, EU, and China, while the domestic and ASEAN markets remain underdeveloped.

The domestic e-commerce opportunity is clear. Vietnam has a population of over 100 million and an e-commerce growth rate exceeding 20% annually (according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade). Domestic air routes, especially between Ho Chi Minh City – Hanoi – Da Nang, could become fertile ground for an overnight delivery model similar to Cargojet’s.

Specialized export charter services are also promising. Vietnam is emerging in high-value sectors such as electronic components, fresh fruit, and premium seafood — ideal for developing charter air cargo services to Japan, South Korea, and the Middle East.

The “dark horse” of air cargo and its global impact
Cargojet may not have a fleet as large as FedEx or UPS, but its advantage lies in flexibility and optimized operations. In Q2 2025, its load factor exceeded 85%, compared to the industry average of about 72%.

Globally, the success of carriers like Cargojet is forcing competitors to reassess their business models, particularly in the “overnight express” and on-demand charter segments. This could spur greater competition in domestic markets across many countries, including Vietnam.

Challenges and prospects for Vietnam
Vietnam can learn from Cargojet’s model but must recognize key obstacles:

Airport infrastructure is strained, with major airports such as Tan Son Nhat and Noi Bai nearing maximum capacity, making it difficult to add more cargo flight slots.

Logistics costs remain high — at 16–18% of GDP according to the World Bank — exceeding the global average and reducing competitiveness.

A lack of dedicated cargo fleets means Vietnam still relies heavily on belly cargo capacity from passenger airlines.

However, with ongoing airport expansion projects, investments in cold storage, and the application of advanced transport management technologies, the domestic market could become a “launchpad” for a dedicated Vietnamese cargo airline in the future.

Leveraging the domestic market to reach global horizons
Cargojet has proven that an air cargo carrier does not need to lead in fleet size to be a winner. By focusing on the right market, fully exploiting essential demand, and maintaining operational flexibility, a company can grow even in challenging times.