Vietnam’s Paper Industry at the Turn of Recovery: Packaging Leads, Circularity Defines the Next Game

The global picture: demand hasn’t collapsed, but the cycle is playing by new rules

The global paper and packaging market remains large in absolute terms, but growth is no longer a straight line. Worldwide output of paper and paperboard stays high, with containerboard/packaging grades accounting for a dominant share; incremental demand increasingly comes from Asia and from sectors closely tied to logistics and fast-moving consumer goods.

However, the 2024-2025 period underscores a critical reality: packaging demand is highly sensitive to inventory cycles and consumer spending. Industry research indicates that packaging demand in some markets may remain “below trend” in 2025 following the post-pandemic adjustment.

On the corporate side, a visible wave of “capacity optimization and cuts” among major players reflects a new competitive environment where cost, efficiency, and operating structure matter more than ever.

Vietnam: packaging remains the engine, with demand projected to rise strongly through 2030

If one segment can be described as the locomotive of Vietnam’s paper industry in 2025-2030, it is packaging paper/containerboard and corrugated products serving exports and e-commerce. Market commentary has cited projections of around 10% compound annual growth for Vietnam’s packaging paper segment through 2030, following a modest decline in 2023 and a subsequent recovery phase.

Domestic demand is also becoming increasingly packaging-heavy: food and beverage, electronics, textiles/garments, e-commerce, and modern retail all drive sustained needs for corrugated boxes and containerboard grades such as kraft, testliner, and medium. Crucially, this growth is not only linked to local consumption; it is tightly connected to export orders - where packaging standards, certifications, and carbon footprints are becoming steadily more demanding.

Production capacity and an investment wave: from recycled paper to integrated packaging loops

Based on the presentation data, corporate investment in Vietnam is shifting toward integrated models that combine “paper - packaging - logistics - circularity.” For example, Miza Corporation reports registered charter capital of VND 999.199 billion, a workforce of around 400 employees, a plant area of 10.5 hectares, and current output of 200,000 tons/year, with 95% concentrated in Medium, Testliner & Kraftliner grades.

Its capacity structure also reflects expansion through industrial clusters: the Dong Anh facility is reported at 50,000 tons/year, and a packaging paper project in Nghi Son is listed at 120,000 tons/year.

Downstream, “finished packaging” is also accelerating. Mipak (as referenced within the materials) cites output of 72,000 tons/year, with 95% in 3/5/7-layer corrugated cartons - indicating that the market is now large enough to support plants specialized in printing, corrugating, bonding, and final converting.

In other words, Vietnam’s paper industry is evolving from “selling paper reels” to “selling packaging solutions,” where value creation lies in design, printing, weight optimization, export compliance, and on-time delivery performance.

The biggest bottlenecks: raw materials, energy, and real recycling capability

Despite positive growth signals, the industry continues to face three classic constraints.

First is raw material supply. Core packaging grades depend heavily on recycled fiber and recovered paper. In the product descriptions, Medium and Testliner are linked to waste paper and additives (starch, water-resistance agents, etc.), while Kraftliner uses virgin pulp blended with a portion of recycled fiber. With that structure, price swings in OCC/waste paper and in global pulp markets flow directly into margins.

Second is energy and environment. Papermaking is energy- and water-intensive, while environmental standards are tightening. Producers must invest more in treatment systems, reduce consumption intensity, and demonstrate emissions-reduction efforts with credible data.

Third is recycling at scale. The materials point to concrete circularity efforts, including an “Environmental overview 2023” noting 141,839 tons of recovered paper used in 2023. Yet, for circularity to operate reliably at an industry scale, Vietnam needs stronger collection - sorting systems and recycling logistics, alongside appropriate incentives. Otherwise, producers remain exposed to dependence on imported recovered paper and pulp.

Trends and demand outlook: 2025-2030 is a race to be “greener, lighter, and smarter”

Three forces are likely to shape paper demand in Vietnam and worldwide over the next several years.

• Paper packaging growth driven by e-commerce and plastic substitution. Many market analyses still point to steady global growth in paper packaging and paperboard. In Vietnam, the cited outlook of around 10% annual growth through 2030 for packaging paper is a meaningful planning signal for capacity, raw material strategy, and technology investment.

(ii) EPR and recycling regulations as the new conversion pressure. Vietnam’s EPR framework requires producers/importers to meet mandated recycling responsibilities - either through compliance with recycling rates or via financial contributions. This pressure will reshape demand: more recyclable materials, “mono-material” packaging designs, and greater emphasis on certification and traceability.

(iii) Data-driven packaging optimization and automation. Industry studies highlight a growing shift toward using technology (including machine learning) to reduce empty space in cartons, lower paper basis weight while maintaining strength, and therefore reduce both cost and emissions.

In parallel, standardization is becoming more decisive. For instance, the presentation highlights FSC certification - widely recognized internationally - as a competitive advantage when supplying export-oriented value chains. As requirements rise, “meeting the standard” becomes less about marketing and more about market access.

Vietnam’s paper industry is entering a pivotal stage: growth is returning, but no longer through “capacity expansion at any cost.” In a global environment shaped by inventory cycles and fluctuating demand, sustainable winners will have to do three things simultaneously: (1) optimize cost through technology and energy management; (2) secure recycled feedstock by participating more deeply in collection - sorting - recycling ecosystems; and (3) raise product standards, certifications, and ESG transparency to protect export market access. As packaging becomes a defining language of modern supply chains, paper is no longer just a material - it is a measure of competitiveness for the wider economy.

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(*) Le Van Hiep – CEO of Miza Group