The “De Minimis” Shock – When the China–US Air Cargo Route Trembles

A seismic shift on the world’s busiest air cargo route
Before the new policy took effect, the China–US air cargo corridor was the “lifeline” of cross-border e-commerce. The de minimis rule allowed imports under USD 800 into the US to be exempt from tariffs and benefit from simplified customs procedures, enabling millions of small parcels from Chinese e-commerce platforms like Shein, Temu, and AliExpress to flood into the US market.

With this privilege removed, each parcel became subject to import duties and more complex clearance procedures. The result was a sharp drop in air cargo volumes on the route, forcing many carriers and freight forwarders to cut flights, redeploy aircraft to other routes, or lower rates to find new customers. This decline also triggered a wave of excess capacity in the Asia–Pacific region.

Ripple effects across the logistics network
The weakening of the China–US route has created a domino effect throughout the global air cargo network. Major transshipment hubs such as Hong Kong, Incheon, and Anchorage - heavily dependent on Chinese e-commerce cargo - have seen a sudden plunge in volumes, directly impacting ground handling revenues, warehousing, and related supply chain services.

International carriers have been forced to seek alternative markets, shifting capacity to Europe, the Middle East, or Southeast Asia. However, such redeployment is not always effective, as demand on other routes is often insufficient to absorb the surplus capacity. Some smaller carriers have even had to ground aircraft or seek leasing partners.

Vietnam in the vortex of change
As an emerging manufacturing and export hub in Asia, Vietnam faces both pressure and opportunity from this shift.

Conversely, opportunities arise as carriers seek new cargo sources to fill unused capacity. If Vietnam can quickly scale up supply capabilities, particularly in high-value sectors with time-sensitive delivery requirements, it could step into the gap left by Chinese goods.

Carriers’ adaptation strategies and lessons for Vietnam
In response to the de minimis shock, major air cargo carriers have adopted several strategies to mitigate losses: expanding specialized charter services for high-value goods, signing long-term contracts with major exporters outside China, and developing less competitive niche routes. Some have even invested in door-to-door logistics solutions to increase service value and retain customers.

The lesson for Vietnam is clear: it cannot rely solely on a handful of major export markets or core transport corridors. It must diversify both markets and transport modes while upgrading air logistics infrastructure to become a more attractive partner for international carriers. In particular, accelerating the digitization of customs processes and standardizing documentation can help Vietnamese goods shorten handling times and improve competitiveness in an increasingly slot-constrained environment.

A long-term vision for Vietnam in the new landscape
The de minimis episode is not just a policy change; it is also a sign that global e-commerce is entering a new phase — where the advantage lies not only in low production costs but also in the ability to respond quickly and flexibly.

With its favorable geographic location and improving trade environment, Vietnam can leverage the ongoing supply chain shifts to elevate its role in international air cargo.

This requires a long-term strategy: investing in dedicated cargo airports, developing a domestic freighter fleet, expanding cold chain logistics services, and integrating rail and sea connections with air freight to form comprehensive logistics corridors.

When a shock becomes a springboard
The decision to end de minimis has reshaped the global air cargo landscape in a short time. For many countries, it has been a shock that reduced revenues and disrupted trade patterns. But for dynamic economies that know how to seize the moment, it is also an opportunity to expand market share, forge long-term partnerships with carriers, and upgrade their position in the global supply chain.

For Vietnam, the question is not whether we will be affected, but how we will respond. By combining infrastructure upgrades, procedural improvements, development of high-value export products, and building strategic relationships with carriers, today’s shock can absolutely become tomorrow’s springboard.