The U.S. plane manufacturer predicts air freight to grow at an average rate of 5% each year over the next two decades. This outlook is considered astonishingly optimistic.
A look back into the last three decades does not show very encouraging results that bear great hopes for the future. Only once – between 2010 and 2011 – did the annual cargo growth surpass the five percent hurdle. Mostly the tonnage fluctuated between 2 to 4 percentage points. Why? Because the global economy and hence air freight were hit by multiple shocks, namely 9/11, SARS, Gulf War II, high fuel prices, political uncertainties, the financial crisis in the U.S., followed by Europe’s fiscal problems, and the various revolutions in Arabian countries.
Will times become better, the world not be hit by new turmoil? According to plane maker Boeing this world is facing a conflict-free future, at least within the next two decades. How else is it to understand that the manufacturer predicts cargo to grow 5 percent in average per year until 2032? Airbus is slightly more cautious with their estimated growth rate of yearly 4.8 percent. But even this figure seems to be quite optimistic measured against the last 30 years.
Speed gaining rail transports of cargo across the Eurasian land bridge or dramatic shifts from air to ocean didn’t obviously play a major role in the market predictions of Boeing’s sales people. The aircraft producer wants to sell its own products – passenger and freighter aircraft. This is the daily biz which 60,000 Boeing staff and their families depend on. But isn’t the prediction over-optimistic in relation to the experiences of the recent years? When asked, Tom Hoang, Boeings Regional Director Cargo Marketing states, “the figure is realistic, not over-optimistic.” According to him, things will improve by 2014 with cargo returning to trend growth. As indications he mentions the strengthening of the private sector in the U.S., Europe’s emerging from recession, and near-term growth expectations in Japan.
As a result of the predicted volume growth over the next two decades the demand for freighters by airlines will amount to 2,300 aircraft, out of which 850 will be newly built and 1,450 consist of conversions. While presenting these figures manager Hoang emphasized that future freighter deliveries will be led by demand for wide bodies (plus 80 tons). They will account for 640 units with a market value of $200bn, whereas only 210 medium-sized cargo planes (40 to 80 tons) worth $40bn will be required by the market.
This assumption runs contrary to figures presented by rival Airbus which assumes that the greatest market demand for new production freighters will be for mid-size cargo planes with capacities ranging from 30 to 80 tons. This can be seen as a clear indication of their variants A330F and the upcoming A350F.
How difficult times for “large size fits all” freighters have become can be visually experienced in a U.S. desert where Russian carrier AirBridge Cargo has decided to park three of their brand new Boeing 747-8Fs until further notice. “I have to carefully weigh my words when commenting on this issue,” says Boeing’s Elizabeth Lund who is responsible for the 777 program at her firm’s Everett plant. She did not deny that large aircraft like the aforementioned Jumbo variant might be a bit out of time. “The aircraft is very fruitful on high dense routes,” was all she charmingly admitted.
