Air Cargo Outlook 2025

Slower growth, not a reversal

On December 16, 2024, IATA projected 2025 cargo revenue at US$157 billion—up 5.4% versus 2024—while warning that demand growth would decelerate from the sharp, post-pandemic recovery pace. The association also emphasized lingering aftershocks from trade policy, tariffs, and a still-restrictive interest-rate environment.

By June 2, 2025, FreightWaves added that amid escalating trade tensions, airlines had proactively trimmed their 2025 volume growth outlook to around 0.7%—well below earlier estimates. This reinforces the “no fireworks” view for the peak season, but it is not a pessimistic scenario; rather, the market is easing off after a year of sprinting.

Why is it “warm but not explosive”?

First, geopolitics and tariffs are skewing booking rhythms. Measures to tighten controls on cross-border e-commerce, tariff disputes, and risks of disruption on ocean and overland routes have altered shipper behavior: some seasonal orders are pulled forward, yet shippers are also ready to “hit the brakes” when rates spike. In 2024 we saw front-loading ahead of Lunar New Year and several ocean GRIs, which temporarily spilled some demand into airfreight—an effect too short-lived to fuel a sustained boom.

Second, supply is being added cautiously. In early January 2025, a number of all-cargo carriers increased lift on the Europe–Asia corridor—Maersk Air Cargo’s launch to two Chinese cities being a case in point. Putting capacity precisely where the bottlenecks were has “smoothed the spikes,” preventing rate surges from lasting as long as in past tight-capacity peak seasons.

Third, demand composition is changing because of e-commerce. Over the long term, e-commerce remains the prime engine of air cargo. A Boeing report (12/2024), cited by FreightWaves, suggests the market could double over the next 20 years, with express leading the charge. In the short term, however, even e-commerce experiences “inflate-deflate” cycles tied to consumer spending, which may keep 2025 growth below expectations.

Keep expectations realistic

In late 2024, analysts aggregated by FreightWaves predicted the “air-cargo bull market” would cool by roughly 50% in 2025 due to a shortage of newly delivered freighters and tighter policy measures on cross-border e-commerce shipments into the U.S. By January 2025, FreightWaves observed a brighter-than-expected start thanks to electronics orders from Asia and pre-Lunar-New-Year pull-ins, while stressing the temporal nature of the bump. The crux is composure: pockets of congestion may appear, but the market has learned to self-adjust.

From a longer-range perspective, Boeing maintains a constructive outlook through 2043, forecasting average annual air-cargo growth of 3.4–4%, with express outpacing the industry. That backdrop allows airlines and shippers to plan investments on a medium-to-long-term cadence, avoiding over-bets on brief peak spurts.

Implications for ASEAN and Vietnam

For Southeast Asian exporters, 2025 is a test of disciplined capacity management:

Lock in a base load via contracts and keep flexibility for the spot market. With demand still solid, splitting volumes—contracting 60–80% and reserving 20–40% for spot—helps capture lead-time advantages without getting trapped by seasonal pricing. Experience from 2024–early 2025 shows that price “waves” are typically short and corridor-specific.

Adopt multi-gateway routing and split volumes. Additional Europe–Asia lift early in 2025 benefits exporters of electronics, fast fashion, and temperature-controlled pharma—provided they diversify across gateways and carriers. Contract terms should allow changes of gateway or flight date within a defined flex window without heavy penalties.

Build a national “green lane” for e-commerce/hi-tech. On the policy front, advanced markets are discussing prioritized cargo lanes, process digitization, and smarter security screening to cut ground time. This is highly relevant for Vietnam as high-value shipments grow; a proactive policy framework can turn “airport speed” into a national competitive edge.

Risks and watch-outs in the months ahead

Fuel prices & surcharges. Sharp moves in jet fuel can erode margins on price-sensitive orders.
Ocean volatility and the “communicating vessels” effect. Whenever box rates jump too quickly (GRIs, chokepoints), some demand shifts to air or sea-air; yet these episodes are increasingly short as cargo airlines actively redeploy lift.
Freighter availability. A lack of near-term delivery slots for new freighters limits step-change capacity growth; mitigating this, carriers are leveraging mixed fleets (belly + freighter) to balance supply.
Cross-border parcel policy. Any change to duty thresholds or controls can immediately reshape e-commerce flows, especially into the U.S. and Europe.

Operational recommendations for Vietnamese shippers

Contract around time-reliability KPIs, not just price. Negotiate OTP (on-time performance) with refund/compensation clauses for delays, and demand transparency on peak surcharges. Measuring “delivery reliability” is fast becoming a standard procurement metric for global retailers.

Standardize mode-shift playbooks (sea → air/sea-air). Define trigger thresholds across three axes: order margin, late-delivery penalties, and the realized gap between planned and actual lead time. Pre-build a “menu” of alternate gateways to avoid dependence on a single corridor—especially effective for fast fashion, consumer electronics, and high-value components.

Invest in digital standards (E-AWB/E-freight) and compliant cold chain. Digitized documentation shortens ground handling; for biopharma, GDP-compliant facilities and temperature-controlled ULD capability are “table stakes” for long-term international contracts.

The air cargo outlook for 2025 resembles a gentle upward slope rather than a steep climb. Asia—and ASEAN in particular—remains the principal demand engine. To turn that demand into advantage, shippers need greater discipline in base-load contracting, more flexibility in gateways, and consistent adherence to digital operating standards. That’s how to get the most out of a “warm” season without fireworks—and be well-positioned for the next upcycle as the clouds of tariff and geopolitical uncertainty begin to clear.