EU CBAM: A New Test for Vietnam’s Export Supply Chains and Green Logistics Strategy

For an export-driven economy like Vietnam, CBAM is not only about an extra “carbon tax” but also a powerful driver forcing companies to rethink entire supply chains, with logistics and emissions traceability at the core.

CBAM as a “Carbon Shield” and the New Rules of the EU Market

According to the European Commission, CBAM is designed as a “carbon shield” to prevent carbon leakage, where producers relocate to countries with laxer climate rules to avoid paying for emissions under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). In its initial phase, CBAM covers six carbon-intensive product categories - iron and steel, cement, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen - with a gradual phase-in from 2026 to 2034, aligned with the phase-out of free allowances under the EU ETS.

During the transition until the end of 2025, importers must report embedded emissions but do not yet pay the CBAM charge. From 2026 onward, they will have to purchase CBAM certificates to cover the difference between the carbon price in the exporting country and the EU ETS price, with CBAM obligations ramping up until the mechanism is fully operational from 2034.

Studies warn that CBAM will affect not only exporters of primary materials but also firms that use steel, aluminium, cement and fertilizers as inputs to manufacture downstream goods sold on the EU market. This makes CBAM a new strategic variable in supply-chain and logistics planning for Vietnamese exporters, particularly as the EVFTA has significantly lowered tariff barriers and opened more doors into Europe.

Steel, Cement, Aluminium, Fertilizers: Vietnam’s “Hotspots” under CBAM

International and domestic reports consistently identify four Vietnamese sectors as most exposed to CBAM in the short term: iron and steel, cement, aluminium and fertilizers. The EU is a key export market for Vietnam’s steel products; without improvements in energy efficiency and cleaner power, CBAM charges could eat into already thin margins or even wipe out competitiveness for certain product lines.

In cement and aluminium, the challenge extends beyond factory gates. Maritime and road transport, storage and cargo handling all add to the carbon footprint, yet few Vietnamese firms currently have systems to measure and allocate logistics emissions at shipment or route level. In fertilizers, especially those relying heavily on natural gas, emissions cuts require major investments in technology while logistics chains must be optimized to reduce losses and unnecessary transport.

A number of assessments show that many Vietnamese exporters are still insufficiently prepared for CBAM: they lack decarbonisation roadmaps, reliable emissions data and robust traceability from factory to port. Some large FDI manufacturers have started measuring Scope 1 and 2 emissions, but Scope 3 emissions - including logistics - remain largely uncharted territory.

In this context, logistics providers cannot stay on the sidelines. Without accurate information on fuel consumption, routes, load factors and idle times, exporters will struggle to compile credible emissions reports as part of their CBAM compliance documentation.

Logistics in the Carbon Game: From Emissions Cost to Competitive Advantage

On the upside, CBAM also opens a window for Vietnamese logistics firms to reposition themselves. Instead of selling transport services alone, they can become partners in their customers’ decarbonisation journeys. This includes route optimization, deploying more fuel-efficient fleets, shifting to inland waterways and rail on key corridors and cutting dwell times at ports and warehouses.

In the longer term, logistics companies will need to invest in emissions-management platforms built on operational data. Once they can assign CO₂ footprints to specific shipments and lanes, they will be able to help clients produce detailed CBAM reports and showcase tangible reductions in transport-related emissions.

Working with shippers and manufacturers to progressively adopt lower-carbon fuels - electricity, LNG, biofuels and, in future, green marine fuels - will also shape the standing of Vietnamese logistics providers in global supply chains at a time when “carbon costs” are entering every commercial negotiation.

In the CBAM era, logistics is no longer a peripheral part of the emissions equation; it is a critical lever for exporters seeking to demonstrate decarbonisation efforts. Port operators, warehouse managers, shipping lines and trucking firms with strong data capabilities, efficient operations and faster energy transition will become strategic partners to multinationals under Net Zero pressure—not only in the EU but also in markets like the US, Japan and South Korea, where similar carbon-adjustment schemes are under consideration.

The EU’s CBAM is a powerful signal that carbon now has a tangible price in global supply chains and Vietnam is very much part of this new reality. Rather than focusing solely on defensive cost calculations, Vietnamese firms should treat CBAM as a catalyst to upgrade technology, restructure supply chains and place logistics at the heart of their decarbonisation strategy. If they do, CBAM can become an opportunity not only to keep access to the EU market but also to build Vietnam’s reputation as a responsible, low-carbon supplier in a rapidly greening global economy.